Democrats Size Up Senate Race

JUNE 22, 2009 POLITICS / JOHN MAGINNIS



Congressman Charlie Melancon has confirmed that he is actively considering challenging U.S. Sen. David Vitter for re-election next year. According to a statement from a campaign aide, the Democrat from Napoleonville is talking it all over with his wife and kids and plans to make an announcement in a few weeks.

Several political sources say he has been more definite with national Democratic campaign officials, telling them he plans to run.

While Melancon earlier this year seemed to have ruled out a Senate challenge, a renewed press by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, armed with a poll showing Vitter's vulnerability, got the three-term congressman to reconsider.

Besides conferring with the family, a final piece of unfinished business for Melancon would be a sit-down with businessman and fellow Democrat Jim Bernhard, who also has considered running. A friend of the Shaw Group chairman said he has been at his North Carolina retreat for two weeks making his own final decision on the race.

Yet Bernhard has been mulling this over for a year or more, to the impatience of state and national Democrats seeking a formidable challenger. Melancon fills that bill as an experienced lawmaker, a strong fundraiser and a proven natural campaigner.

Another factor driving Melancon's final decision is the alternative: he faces a tough re-election in 2010 in a House district that might not exist after the 2011 reapportionment.

Rep. Nickie Monica, R-LaPlace, is expected to announce his campaign for Congress in the 3rd District some time after the Legislature adjourns this week. Monica says he's been getting encouragement from business people and conservatives unhappy with the congressman's votes for the federal stimulus package and President Obama's first budget.

Beyond that, with the state likely to lose a congressional district after the next census, the 3rd, in the bayou region, could be cut up among other south Louisiana districts. Even if the 3rd remains intact, it stands to lose many of its African-American voters in the river parishes--Melancon's base--in order to maintain a minority district based in New Orleans.

Even if polls show Vitter, recovering from his sex scandal, having electability problems, a Democrat running for the Senate in the South in 2010 would have his own. Vitter has emerged as the principled opponent of nearly every Obama administration policy so far. He would try to tie Melancon to national Democrats' quest for a filibuster-proof 60-seat Senate majority.

A leader of the moderate Blue Dog caucus in the House, Melancon would need to create some separation between himself and the liberal Democratic leadership. But he has left his flank exposed on an issue crucial to business interests. He will have to answer for his sponsorship of the Employee Free Choice Act, also known as card check, which would allow labor unions to organize workplaces through signed petitions instead of secret-ballot elections.

Vitter already is highlighting his virulent opposition to the legislation. National business groups plan to spend millions hammering away at the issue. By when they're through, card check will sound worse than adultery.

Republicans want to make this an election about national issues instead of a personal referendum on Vitter. Rather than a Blue Dog, critics already paint Melancon as a lapdog for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The GOP will warn that Melancon, if elected, will fall in behind the president and Senate Democrats on sweeping energy and healthcare legislation.

Which is why some local Democrats are hesitant to push Bernhard aside. His profile as a civic-minded, successful entrepreneur and his lack of a voting record would make him appealing to voters across the board and a moving target for GOP attacks. That independent streak, however, is problematic for Senate leaders not interested in dealing with a Democrat in name only.

Until the two Democratic heavyweights meet and emerge with one holding the other's fist up high, this race is not yet set.

Nor is it on the Republican side. Though Vitter is working to close party ranks, an attractive primary challenger to the incumbent could turn this election upside down, upsetting best-laid plans all around.

Should that come to pass, what an irony and a bummer it would be for Democrats to agree on the candidate they want, only to lose the opponent they need.