Two Big Years Ahead for Landrieu and Vitter

POLITICS / JOHN MAGINNIS
NOVEMBER 10, 2008
www.lapolitics.com

In biennial Washington, an election cycle ends and the next begins: two years that will be pivotal in the careers of Sens. Mary Landrieu and David Vitter.

Triumphant Landrieu begins her third term, her first with her party controlling both Congress and the White House. With advancing seniority and her centrism, she approaches the level where John Breaux played so effectively.

Vitter returns with fewer Republicans colleagues to a less hospitable capital. Still recovering from last year's disgrace from his involvement with a D.C. escort service, in two years he faces trial by re-election without even being assured of renomination by his party.

The currency of power in Congress is committee assignments, which undergo a serious game of musical chairs at the start of each term. It so happens that all three of Landrieu's major committees are in the middle of the dance.

She stands to gain her first chairmanship, that of the Small Business Committee, when Sen. John Kerry leaves it to take over the Foreign Relations Committee, to be vacated by Vice President-elect Joe Biden. The panel has oversight of the Small Business Administration.

Drama encircles the Homeland Security Committee, likely not to be chaired much longer by Sen. Joe Lieberman, an independent who caucuses with the Democrats but who campaigned for John McCain. He could be stripped of his chairmanship if he doesn't bolt to the Republicans first. If so, say Senate sources, the subcommittee Landrieu chairs could have its jurisdiction expanded to cover both disaster preparedness and response.

The music just started on the all-important Appropriations Committee, once Sen. Robert Byrd, who turns 91 this month, announced he will step down as chairman. In the ensuing chain reaction, Landrieu is said to be maneuvering to chair the subcommittee on military construction, which could have major impact from Barksdale to Belle Chasse.

On the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, the senator stands to be the point person for Louisiana with the new administration. Given that she has been the loudest critic of FEMA, the new president likely will seek her input on a new agency director and some stalled decisions affecting the state's recovery.

Chief among them is how much FEMA is to fund a new public hospital in New Orleans to replace Big Charity, shuttered since Katrina. The state says it is due $493 million, while FEMA has dug in its heels at $23 million. Gov. Bobby Jindal is still trying to get the Bush administration to move FEMA off the dime, but time is running out on a resolution in this term.

The impasse could be broken and the hospital funded under the Obama administration, in line with the next president's support for public works projects to stimulate the economy long-term. If such comes to pass, Mary Landrieu's earmarks and fingerprints will be all over it.

The next two years won't be as balmy for Vitter, but he's preparing for the storm. Despite his scandal, polls show him maintaining healthy, though not Jindalesque, approval ratings. It has helped that he has steadfastly refused to further elaborate on his self-described "sin," but the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee won't be so discreet.

Potential Democratic opponents mentioned include: Congressman Charlie Melancon of Napoleonville, Jefferson Parish District Attorney Paul Connick and Shaw Group CEO Jim Bernhard.

Yet Vitter could be challenged within his party. There are Republicans who think Secretary of State Jay Dardenne would have made a stronger Senate candidate than was John Kennedy and would be more electable than Vitter in 2010. Dardenne has said or done nothing to encourage the speculation.

Yet one wonders if Republicans have the stomach for a civil war, while there is little doubt that Vitter will do what it takes. In what can be taken as a signal for solidarity, Jindal is hosting a fundraiser for Vitter in Washington next month.

In the bigger picture, consider that the 2010 elections will be a mid-term referendum on Obama's presidency. Even if things are going well for the new administration, and not so great for Republicans, Vitter has to like his odds in a state where Obama could not crack 40 percent overall or 15 percent among whites.

The state's two senators will have vastly different relationships with the new president, but his administration might just work out well for both.