State Turnaround Going the Wrong Way

POLITICS / JOHN MAGINNIS

NOVEMBER 24, 2008

As quickly as the seasons changed, Gov. Bobby Jindal finds himself in a strange new place. And it's not Iowa.

His has been a breathtaking year, going from obscure congressman to national political celebrity and future hope of the Republican Party.

Yet while riding in the veepstakes and making the national circuit of TV appearances and fundraisers, it's helped him enormously that things were running so smoothly back at his day job. That was in large part due to the state's over-flowing revenue stream, pushed along by the recovery economy and rising oil prices.

Jindal took office with a $1 billion unspent surplus from the Blanco administration, which he and lawmakers promptly spent before rolling up a new surplus of $865 million for the fiscal year just ended. In the current budget, he asked the Legislature to increase state spending by $1 billion. The only cutting he did was of taxes--some that he proposed, some that he took credit for. No wonder, as his national star rose, there were no complaints on the homefront.

It was quite a year, but it is ending early. Even before Jindal can set a plan for spending last year's surplus, he sees the bottom falling out for the year ahead, with a projected deficit of $1.3 billion and the possibility of running out of money before the current budget year ends June 30.

The flattening state economy, exacerbated by the sudden world economic downturn and the tailspin in oil prices, has caused a fiscal whiplash to state officials, who had grown accustomed to only looking up.

The $1.3 billion hole being bandied about might not be that bad, but it could also get worse. Usually, the November budget estimates are the scariest, because they are based on maintaining all services at current levels, adjusted upward for inflation, which rarely happens. By having agencies absorb those increases and making other adjustments, the situation almost always looks brighter by the time the governor submits his executive budget in March.

But the darker cloud on the horizon--for state budget planners, not you--is the freefall in the price of oil. It took four years for oil prices to reach historic levels, but only four months to give nearly all of that up, dipping below $50 last week.

That projected budget with its $1.3 billion shortfall, bad as it looks, is based on oil selling for an average $72 per barrel for the fiscal yaer starting in July. The current budget is based on oil averaging $84 per barrel. Every $1 drop in the average price of oil over one year decreases state revenue by $13 million.

At this rate, available revenues could fall faster than the administration can cut spending. The governor and legislators could soon be facing ugly choices they didn't have to make last year, whether to cut healthcare, higher education or transportation, if not all three.

Deteriorating state finances will complicate what's supposed to be Gov. Jindal's signature initiative, his proposal to revamp the ailing public healthcare system in order to improve dismal outcomes while controlling rampaging costs.

Yet even if his final plan (so far he's released a concept paper) controls costs in the long run, healthcare experts expect it will take more money to implement short-term. Four months ago, it looked as though excess revenues could help to span the gap, but that bridge has been washed out.

His healthcare concept has won praise in conservative circles, including the Wall Street Journal. But now the governor must present a solid plan, get it through a skeptical Legislature and implement it so as to, at the very least, do no harm to the million citizens on Medicaid and the other million who are uninsured. He must align his plan with what the Obama administration and Congress does. And he has to find a way to pay for it at a time when the revenue base is at its most volatile.

It gives cold comfort to Jindal that governors in other states are in similar dire straits. Few are watching the governor of Nebraska closely. Jindal's the one who will be judged on his ability to deliver effective, non-partisan solutions to big problems, which is what he is telling national audiences that Republicans need to do.

Does the Constitution Need Fixing?

POLITICS / JOHN MAGINNIS
NOVEMBER 14, 2008
www.lapolitics.com

"Don't let the constitution get in the way of a good bill," then-Rep. Francis Thompson told the House in his farewell speech before heading over to the state Senate.

He was joking, sort of, but also making the point that change is the most permanent thing about our state charter. A statewide election doesn't go by without voters being asked to make room for a half dozen or more new or used ideas by legislators to tweak the basic document.

The voters have gone along, sort of, passing 29 of 30 since 2004 before last week's election, when they turned thumbs down on 4 of 7. The canary in the coal mine, is it? Political scientists are ever looking for the tipping point when voters register their disgust with the perennial amendment process, akin to the revolt of 1970, when 53 of 53 amendments were torched, paving the way for the constitutional convention of 1973.

Are we there yet? Seems not. This year's 3 for 7 beats the 0 for 4 of 1992 and the 0 for 7 of 1984. On nearly one of three constitutional ballots since 1974, voters have nixed a half or more of proposed amendments.

This time, the mixed reaction was ascribed to voter fatigue, though they managed to soldier through approving all 21 amendments in 2006. It could be that this year's high-turnout election brought out many infrequent voters, who weren't prepared to vote on the amendments and so rejected what they did not understand, if they made it that far down the ballot.

This year's line-up of amendments was criticized for being small, technical fixes rather than substantive changes. But that is the nature of the state's specific, detailed constitution, instead of the broad statement of guiding principles that is the U.S. Constitution.

"The problem is each time we add more detail it invites more amendments," observed Jim Brandt of the Public Affairs Research Council.

It could be worse, and was. The state's latest constitution, its 11th, approved in 1974, replaced the 1921 charter that had grown to the longest in the land before the new one was trimmed down to a relatively taut 35,000 words. Since then, 154 amendments of 224 proposed have ballooned it again to more than twice that size.

It's no different than liposuction, after which, without diet and exercise, the fat comes back.

Louisiana seems no more ready for a political lifestyle change. Legislators and interest groups want to be able to protect laws dear to them from constant attempts at revision, so they stick them in the constitution to end the argument. Sometimes it does, sometimes it creates unintended consequences that require a new amendment to fix.

It's not all been fluff. Over the years, legislators and voters have put some important financial protections in the constitution, among them: the 8g fund, the tobacco settlement fund, the rainy day trust fund, the revenue estimating conference and constitutional caps on spending and debt.

Those ideas were too ahead of their time in 1974, but their time came, and now the funds are mostly safe from being plundered, and the fiscal safeguards have not been gutted.

At least Louisiana no longer has the nation's longest constitution. Alabama does, and it hardly seems to be holding them back. I've yet to hear of any family that has packed up to leave this state or a company that decided not to relocate here because Louisiana's constitution is too long.

Our constitution may have too many words, but who's counting? You don't have to read it.

Still some believe it is time to start over with another constitutional convention. That's been tried, but lawmakers couldn't agree on how to call one: whether to have the Legislature sit as a convention, or to bar legislators from serving or some hybrid. The matter has not reached such urgency to demand it be resolved.

It's not all an aggravation. For some voters, deciding on constitutional amendments is an interesting civic exercise, made more accessible by the excellent voter guides published by PAR. When it gets to where those hearty voters find it's a drag, they will let us know.

Two Big Years Ahead for Landrieu and Vitter

POLITICS / JOHN MAGINNIS
NOVEMBER 10, 2008
www.lapolitics.com

In biennial Washington, an election cycle ends and the next begins: two years that will be pivotal in the careers of Sens. Mary Landrieu and David Vitter.

Triumphant Landrieu begins her third term, her first with her party controlling both Congress and the White House. With advancing seniority and her centrism, she approaches the level where John Breaux played so effectively.

Vitter returns with fewer Republicans colleagues to a less hospitable capital. Still recovering from last year's disgrace from his involvement with a D.C. escort service, in two years he faces trial by re-election without even being assured of renomination by his party.

The currency of power in Congress is committee assignments, which undergo a serious game of musical chairs at the start of each term. It so happens that all three of Landrieu's major committees are in the middle of the dance.

She stands to gain her first chairmanship, that of the Small Business Committee, when Sen. John Kerry leaves it to take over the Foreign Relations Committee, to be vacated by Vice President-elect Joe Biden. The panel has oversight of the Small Business Administration.

Drama encircles the Homeland Security Committee, likely not to be chaired much longer by Sen. Joe Lieberman, an independent who caucuses with the Democrats but who campaigned for John McCain. He could be stripped of his chairmanship if he doesn't bolt to the Republicans first. If so, say Senate sources, the subcommittee Landrieu chairs could have its jurisdiction expanded to cover both disaster preparedness and response.

The music just started on the all-important Appropriations Committee, once Sen. Robert Byrd, who turns 91 this month, announced he will step down as chairman. In the ensuing chain reaction, Landrieu is said to be maneuvering to chair the subcommittee on military construction, which could have major impact from Barksdale to Belle Chasse.

On the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, the senator stands to be the point person for Louisiana with the new administration. Given that she has been the loudest critic of FEMA, the new president likely will seek her input on a new agency director and some stalled decisions affecting the state's recovery.

Chief among them is how much FEMA is to fund a new public hospital in New Orleans to replace Big Charity, shuttered since Katrina. The state says it is due $493 million, while FEMA has dug in its heels at $23 million. Gov. Bobby Jindal is still trying to get the Bush administration to move FEMA off the dime, but time is running out on a resolution in this term.

The impasse could be broken and the hospital funded under the Obama administration, in line with the next president's support for public works projects to stimulate the economy long-term. If such comes to pass, Mary Landrieu's earmarks and fingerprints will be all over it.

The next two years won't be as balmy for Vitter, but he's preparing for the storm. Despite his scandal, polls show him maintaining healthy, though not Jindalesque, approval ratings. It has helped that he has steadfastly refused to further elaborate on his self-described "sin," but the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee won't be so discreet.

Potential Democratic opponents mentioned include: Congressman Charlie Melancon of Napoleonville, Jefferson Parish District Attorney Paul Connick and Shaw Group CEO Jim Bernhard.

Yet Vitter could be challenged within his party. There are Republicans who think Secretary of State Jay Dardenne would have made a stronger Senate candidate than was John Kennedy and would be more electable than Vitter in 2010. Dardenne has said or done nothing to encourage the speculation.

Yet one wonders if Republicans have the stomach for a civil war, while there is little doubt that Vitter will do what it takes. In what can be taken as a signal for solidarity, Jindal is hosting a fundraiser for Vitter in Washington next month.

In the bigger picture, consider that the 2010 elections will be a mid-term referendum on Obama's presidency. Even if things are going well for the new administration, and not so great for Republicans, Vitter has to like his odds in a state where Obama could not crack 40 percent overall or 15 percent among whites.

The state's two senators will have vastly different relationships with the new president, but his administration might just work out well for both.

Landrieu's Base Comes Through Again

POLITICS / JOHN MAGINNIS
NOVEMBER 5, 2008

Sen. Mary Landrieu won her third term by more votes than her previous two winning margins combined, though her race against Treasurer John Kennedy got tighter and bumpier the closer they came to the finish line.

An independent poll done for TV stations in the final week showed Landrieu starting to pull away and Barack Obama closing the gap in Louisiana. Neither happened. The six-point lead Landrieu ended with is about where she started in the first polls a year ago.

Despite President-elect Obama's historic victory, the ceiling for African-American candidates in this state only inched upward to 40 percent. The previous high was Cleo Fields' 36.5 percent showing against Mike Foster in the 1995 governor's race. In her first election, in 1996, Landrieu received 75,000 fewer votes than Bill Clinton, whereas this year she won 200,000 more votes than Obama.

Landrieu was supposed to be more vulnerable because of the post-Katrina depopulation of her New Orleans base. Yet while 50,000 fewer votes were cast in the city this time compared to 2004, Landrieu beat Kennedy there 7-1 with an 86,000 vote margin, the bulk of her 128,000 lead statewide.

Two things that worked for Kennedy toward the end, but not enough, were fear of Obama's Washington and the Bobby bump.

Perhaps the Republican's most effective ad laid out the case that because the Democrats were about to win a veto-proof Congress (they didn't), Louisiana needed to send a firewall to the Senate instead of more fuel for the liberal majority.

Gov. Bobby Jindal's late endorsement of Kennedy helped the candidate some but probably did more for the governor. He demonstrated to national Republicans that he will put his name on the line for the party, even in a losing effort, which he can claim to have made closer. Yet he didn't go overboard and personally campaign for Kennedy or criticize Landrieu, who is now his sole pipeline to the national treasury.

His greater partisan service was endorsing Congressman-elect Bill Cassidy in the 6th District, one of only two Republicans in the country to oust Democratic incumbents.

The National Republican Campaign Committee and an independent expenditure by a local contractor combined to do a number on Congressman Don Cazayoux. But the short-lived incumbent (elected in May, he doesn't even get one Washington Mardi Gras) can really thank his former colleague and former Democrat Michael Jackson, an African-American state legislator who ran as an independent. Jackson's 12 percent showing enabled Cassidy to win by a plurality.

Jackson resented that national Democratic donors ignored him in the spring special election and so were continuing to take the party's African-American base for granted. His was a costly point that some local Republicans helped him to make by putting up over half of Jackson's campaign warchest.

The national Democratic party did get behind state Sen. Don Cravins Jr., who ran a spirited campaign but was defeated soundly by Congressman Charles Boustany in the 7th District.

Special recognition goes to two first-time congressional candidates, Democrat Jim Harlan in the 1st District and Chris Gorman in the 4th, who combined spent $3 million of their own money in losing causes.

Congressman Steve Scalise was easily re-elected in the 1st, while the 4th now becomes a national party battleground on Dec. 6. Democrat Paul Carmouche will try to take over a GOP seat against Dr. John Fleming, who must now consolidate Gorman supporters behind him after the bitter party contest.

Unfortunately for Louisiana's spiffy new ethical image, the other race to be decided next month is in the New Orleans-based 2nd District, where indicted Congressman Bill Jefferson, who beat fellow Democrat Helena Moreno, will be heavily favored against Republican Joseph Cao and two others. Even blacks who want Jefferson gone would rather the Justice Department do it, or have a jury clear him, than to cede the seat to one of another color. As with racial voting patterns statewide, in a year of change, some things haven't.

Jindal Casts Donor Net Nationwide

POLITICS / JOHN MAGINNIS
OCTOBER 13, 2008
www.lapolitics.com


Bobby Jindal might not be an avid football fan, but he knows this much about the big game: it's where the money is.

So he followed the legions of LSU faithful to Gainesville, Fla., for Saturday's disastrous encounter with the Gators. He had the good sense, however, to skip the mayhem for a fundraising party for himself at a doctor's house in nearby Alachua. There wealthy Floridians paid $1,000 each to Friends of Bobby Jindal (the original ticket price of $2,500 was lowered in order to widen his circle of new friends, according to an event organizer) and more if they wanted to have their picture taken or join a roundtable discussion of "policy and politics" with the rising GOP star.

The governor, who also spoke at a John McCain rally before heading home, has been in great demand as a fundraising attraction for Republican candidates across the land. The Florida party began Jindal's out-of-state outreach on his own behalf.

Friends of Bobby Jindal now has an organizer working exclusively on national fundraising. Last week, the governor's communications director said Jindal would be making more such out-of-state trips soon. Like on Monday, when he helped a congressional candidate in Houston to raise money and then had another event to help himself.

So what is our governor up to? There is his re-election, of course. The $800,000 he began the year with in his gubernatorial account is less than 10 percent of what he will be comfortable with for his 2011 campaign, even against weak, even non-existent opposition. His loyal Louisiana givers are more than happy to share the load with his growing network of contributors.

Beyond then--but actually before then--there is the next presidential race, which begins on Nov. 5 for this year's losing party.

If the Republicans lose, as the polls signal, the GOP starts with a thin bench, anchored by the governor of Alaska and by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, the nomination runner-up. There will be plenty others.

Yet the veepstakes was also kind to Jindal, with all the panting and sighing over him among true conservatives, and established him as a plausible contender for the top of a future ticket.

The very idea of Jindal 2012 seems unreal for a young governor yet to complete a year in office. Yet we learned in this campaign that the national launching pad doesn't ask when one is ready for blast-off, as evidenced by the current presidential frontrunner, who, four years ago, was a state senator in Springfield, Ill.

The 2012 GOP nomination will be moot if McCain wins or if a President Obama is as popular in four years as he is today. If not, even then Jindal may be seen by many as vice-presidential timber instead. But his career moves consistently demonstrate that he will reach higher than the level deemed appropriate for a man his age.

For now, it's all good for Jindal that politically attuned people in the rest of the country get to know him better and write him checks. As long as he doesn't neglect the day job, his exposure also reflects well on this state. Just the notion among outsiders that a Louisiana politician might serve time in a different kind of federal facility than is often the case would be refreshing.

Since Friends of Bobby Jindal is not a registered federal committee, money he raises now can only be used for his state elections, though he can also contribute to candidates around the country, as he does already. No better way to win friends and influence people in places one might visit again one day.

In running for president, who ends in first place often doesn't start there. Gov. Sarah Palin, if she is not the next vice president, will still be the glamorous new face of the Republican Party. But Jindal has more brains behind his. Whether or not that's what Republicans are looking for in 2012, or whenever, this governor is building to the challenge of a national campaign. He's already figured out the money.

Relax, Mickey Doesn't Vote Here

POLITICS / JOHN MAGINNIS
OCTOBER 27, 2008
www.lapolitics.com


This is one of those elections where the old bromide--"It all depends on who turns out"--doesn't apply. They're all turning out, all races and parties, as record-breaking early voting foretells a record turnout on Tuesday.

The state record is 1.943 million votes cast in the 2004 presidential race, which was a 66 percent turnout. This time, a predicted turnout of 70 percent or higher would easily crack the 2 million mark.

One pleasant surprise in pre-election figures is that, despite continued out-migration and the depopulation in the New Orleans area from Hurricane Katrina, voter registration stayed about the same statewide, up 1,736 from four years ago.

But for aggressive voter registration efforts this year--both organized and individual--Louisiana would have seen a sharp drop in voter rolls. The 180,000 inactive voters purged from the rolls in the last four years were balanced out by an influx of new voters. Over 97,000 were added in the last year alone, nearly half of them African-Americans drawn to vote for Barack Obama.

So the Obama effect has compensated somewhat for the Katrina effect, which was supposed to make Sen. Mary Landrieu vulnerable to Treasurer John Kennedy due to her diminished New Orleans base. Yet, despite positive polls, she still has cause for concern, because no one is sure how many are around to vote there.

The rolls show almost 280,000 registered voters in New Orleans, which is greater than current estimates of the population. The process for removing the names of inactive voters who moved after Katrina won't run its course until after the 2010 elections. Until then, Tuesday's vote will provide the best snapshot of the New Orleans electorate and the hometown margin it will provide to Landrieu.

As for the new voters, most signed up on their own or through drives conducted by the two parties and many community-based groups. But it was a massive Louisiana registration project financed by national Democrats that generated more heat and hard feelings than actual new voters.

Before ACORN made national news with voter drives that produced many duplicate or bogus applications--from Mickey Mouse to the Dallas Cowboys--a group called Voting Is Power did much the same thing here this summer, nearly overwhelming the registrar offices in the largest parishes.

The many fake and duplicate forms turned in triggered an ongoing investigation by the secretary of state and a recent call by Sen. David Vitter for a federal probe. But the alarm raised over the threat to the integrity of the vote, while good campaign fodder, is little more than that.

"Those people don't get on the rolls," said Secretary of State Jay Dardenne of fictitious applicants. He is confident that parish registrars have ferreted out virtually all the illicit applications to prevent them from becoming registered voters.

Dardenne and registrars believe the root of the problem is money, from groups like VIP that are paid to register voters to the canvassers who are hired and given quotas. Besides bogus forms, many others were duplicates or had incomplete information. A large number of applications were signed by ex-felons, but they did not include the required document of release from the Department of Corrections. Registrars make an effort to retrieve missing information from applicants but often don't hear back from them.

Rather than voter fraud, the real harm is to overworked registrar offices as well as to applicants who think they are registered to vote but aren't. That could lead to further delays and some heated discussions at already crowded polling places. Angry ex-felons at the polls: not a pretty thought.

Caddo Parish Registrar Ernie Roberson would like to see the Legislature pass a law to require paid groups to register with the state before conducting drives. He says much abuse could be stemmed if the law required paid workers to sign as witnesses on the application forms they collect. Any changes in registration laws would have to be cleared by the U.S. Justice Department. These are worth debating.

Until then, there is no basis for ballot fraud paranoia. There are times it seems that government is run by Mickey and the gang, but election day here isn't one of them. Y'all go vote.